DCFTA after 5 years of implementation: estimated impact and conclusions for the next 5 years

The Association Agreement between the Republic of Moldova and the European Union, signed on 1 September 2014 and the creation of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) between both sides constitutes the main legal, institutional and policy framework that influences the foreign trade of our country.
After almost five years after the entry into force of the Association Agreement and, implicitly, the DCFTA, it is appropriate to estimate its impact on the foreign trade of the Republic of Moldova.

This study comes to update the estimations from another study conducted by Expert-Grup in 2018. To this end, in addition to the review of the trade flows, the impact of DCFTA is also analyzed in terms of changes in technological sophistication of exports, import prices, trade balance and competitiveness of domestic producers. It is important to note that the study also estimates the net impact of DCFTA by isolating the impact of other factors influencing the growth of exports in EU (eg. inertial effect, external demand, domestic output, exchange rate, imports, etc.).

The study focuses on the balanced and equidistant analysis of statistical data and empirical evidence.

Based on the findings of the study, a series of strategic recommendations on DCFTA implementation for the next 5 years were formulated. Even though the study focuses on the quantitative analysis of the DCFTA impact on trade flows and does not have the primary purpose of formulating policy recommendations, it includes a set of strategic priorities to further capitalize on DCFTA's opportunities and export capabilities.

More data can be found on this link: https://dcfta.md/studiul-dcfta-5ani-adrian-lupusor-en.pdf